f1-agws · f1 race prediction

F1 Race Prediction

Who wins the next Formula 1 race? For every driver the page shows the chance to win, to finish on the podium and in the points, the chance of not finishing, the most likely finishing place with its range, a grid of every finishing position, and what the result would mean for the championship.

We run the race 1,000 times

Each driver gets a rating from their own skill, the pace of the car, recent form and how they usually go at this circuit; after qualifying the real grid is added. Then we run the race 1,000 times, each time with a little uncertainty in the ratings, race luck, retirements as often as each team has had them, and safety cars as often as they have happened at this circuit. The chances are simply how often each thing happened in those runs. There is a view before qualifying and one after it.

How we test it, in public

The model is tested on this season's races it had not seen: before each race it only knew the races before it, and its settings were fixed on earlier seasons. It is compared with the simplest honest guess — the starting grid — on picking the winner, the podium, the points finishers and the finishing order. The test results, including a chart of whether the chances were honest, are always on the page.

If the model does not beat the starting grid, the page says so plainly and shows the test instead of the predictions. The test is run again as each new race is added.

Check the 2026 race schedule, make your own picks in the predictions league next to the model's, or try tyre plans in the strategy simulator.